Why Oil will go up

Neither the riots in the Middle East, or North Africa or the Greek crisis and threats to the natural heirs of bin Laden in Al Qaeda ... none of that is influencing 100% today, and future-the price of oil. The North Sea Brent at U.S. $ 118 a barrel approaching the year's peak at $ 125. The variety West Texas, after nearly touching the $ 150 per barrel in July 2008, down to $ 33 in January 2009 during the recession following the financial crisis, today we are at levels of $ 97 a barrel, and the outlook is the up. It's just a matter microeconomic explains: supply and demand.

Today the oil price estimates are lower, after Saudi Arabia lift his voice in the last meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil exporting cartel composed of twelve countries, in Vienna the week last. This last meeting was tough, because OPEC did not accept the position of Saudi Arabia to increase production quotas of the members to try to calm the high oil prices (especially Brent), and that high oil prices hinders still-fragile recovery, the U.S. and Europe after the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. Recall that at the increase in oil prices of around 40% last year, and to the necessary replacement of oil from Libya has disappeared from the market an offer of 1.3 million daily, and Syria and Yemen affected by geopolitical issues, countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE seeking to curb the rise in crude. According to the director of OPEC by Iran, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Saudi and his followers have been too influenced by country (friends) from high energy consumption as the United States demanding cheaper fuel (per gallon of gasoline reached $ 4 in the United States in a presidential election year with 25 million employees and underemployed and too sluggish economic recovery.) Iran, Algiers, Angola, Libya, Venezuela and Ecuador voted against the proposal.

"The refusal of OPEC will have little immediate impact, since it is assumed that Saudi Arabia will increase its deliveries to the market, using some of the nearly 3.5 million barrels a day of excess capacity. In fact, Saudi Arabia, largest oil producer in the world, is exceeding its quota in something like a million barrels a day, "says Emilio Cardenas, former Ambassador of Argentina to the United Nations. But the consequences are being felt, the expectation to an increased supply by Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the world, pressure on the price of oil down.

Saudi oil output will increase from 8.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in May to 10 million barrels a day, said the newspaper al-Hayat. Saudi Arabia has taken 10 million bpd for at least a decade, according to Reuters, the production having played a roof in July 2008 at 9.7 million bpd after prices touched a record $ 147/barril. It is the only oil producer within and outside OPEC significant capacity availability. But this move is due to what moves markets: expectations forward. The market achieved greater demand today and read this supposed to be maintained, and provided that no other geopolitical conflict arises, at least until OPEC meets again in December or in an emergency meeting something that translates as "greater availability "and more a commodity" offered ". OPEC's message is that the supply remains abundant. The result is the sale of positions. However, the Centre for Global Energy Studies (Centre for Global Energy Studies, CGES) said that today's offer is already enough to supply the market. The global crude oil stocks fell at a rate of over 1.4 milion barrels per day in the second half of 2010.

Saudi Arabia acknowledged its production declined 800,000 barrels per day in March compared to February.

The reasons of higher oil prices are not only the supply side but also demand. It is absolute record-breaking production earlier this year -90,000,000 barrels a day, surpassing pre-crisis levels. The economic recovery, albeit slow, in countries like the United States joined European demand especially from emerging countries like China, click on the price. According to the Administration of the Energy Information (EIA by its acronym in English) United States, the primary energy intensity in China's production exceeds twice the European Union. In addition, China has emerged as the largest plaintiff recent world energy, surpassing the previous leader, the United States. China doubled its energy consumption every ten years. Today over 10 million barrels per day, nearly equaling the EU consumption.

Even if the price of oil is correcting the rise these days, the price remains high and should be maintained.

The real problem pressing on a sensitive issue for today's global economy: economic recovery. The rise of oil impact on global growth and according to the OECD, this will cost almost a point of growth to the developed countries by 2012. And even the emerging economies, international engine of growth today could see their economies slow down.

Paola Pecora ValorMundial.com